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Daejeon Citizen vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Daejeon Citizen
Daejeon Citizen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
6/18/2025K League 1K League 1 · Round 19Daejeon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Daejeon Citizen39%
×Draw27%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daejeon Citizen
1.29
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.17

Daejeon Citizen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 117 away

creates per match

Daejeon Citizen
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

Daejeon Citizen
1.10
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

Daejeon Citizen+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Citizen ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Daejeon Citizen or draw
66%
Daejeon Citizen or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
73%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
61%

Winning margin

Daejeon Citizen wins by 2+
18%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Daejeon Citizen 1+ goals
72%
Daejeon Citizen 2+ goals
37%
Daejeon Citizen 3+ goals
14%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
69%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
33%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Citizen (draw refunded)
54%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Citizen at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Citizen attack 1.21 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Daejeon Citizen scores more
39%
level
27%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
34%

Daejeon Citizen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Daejeon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Daejeon Citizen 0–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Daejeon Citizen and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 0-0 in K League 1 on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in Daejeon.