Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen — K League 1 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 67+ matches
Gimcheon Sangmu FC38%
Daejeon Citizen36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 103 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches
Daejeon Citizen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39
Daejeon Citizen attack 1.52 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Gimcheon Sangmu FC substitutes
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Daejeon Citizen on Saturday, 29 October 2022 at 07:00. The match is part of the K League 1 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen
Daejeon Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4-0 in K League 1 on October 29, 2022.
Goals: Lee Jin-Hyun (31', 54'), Kim In-Gyun (75'), Kim Seung-Sub (85').
Gimcheon Sangmu FC controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 14.
The match was played at Gimcheon Stadium in Gimcheon.