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Gillingham vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
19:45
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
12/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Priestfield Stadium
Big match
39%
Swindon Town
model favours
36%25%39%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Gillingham36%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.42
Swindon Town
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
61%
Gillingham or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
64%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
17%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
76%
Gillingham 2+ goals
41%
Gillingham 3+ goals
17%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
78%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
44%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
48%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gillingham scores more
36%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
39%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Swindon Town
Balanced
48%Possession53%
64%Pass accuracy71%
11.7Shots12.5
1.30xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamSwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Gillingham
5
Draws
2
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
0–20–21–11–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gillingham host Swindon Town

December 1, 2026: Gillingham take on Swindon Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gillingham host Swindon Town at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.