Gillingham 0–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swindon Town

9/3/2022

League Two · Round 7MEMS Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Gillingham38%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.44

Gillingham

1.47

Swindon Town

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

1.22

1.66

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Gillingham

1.38

Swindon Town

1.22

allows per match

Gillingham

1.66

Swindon Town

1.56

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

63%

Gillingham or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

62%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

18%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

77%

Gillingham 2+ goals

43%

Gillingham 3+ goals

18%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

76%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

42%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

51%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gillingham scores more

38%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

37%

Gillingham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Reed

Swindon Town · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Haji Mnoga

10'

Haji Mnoga

10'

Haji Mnoga

54'

L. Jephcott← J. Wakeling

55'

Jonathan Williams

62'

R. Darcy← S. Khan

72'

L. Walker← M. Mandron

72'

A. MacDonald← B. Reeves

79'

W. Wright← S. Kashket

90'

D. Tutonda← H. Adelakun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamSwindon

Overview

22%Possession78%

8Total Shots23

5Corners8

8Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots23

2On Target4

3Off Target10

3Blocked9

4Inside Box11

4Outside Box12

Passing

22%Possession78%

197Total Passes705

103Accurate Passes613

52%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0