Gillingham 2–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

T. Coyle 80'

V. Oliver 17'

12/5/2020

League One · Round 16Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gillingham40%

×Draw24%

Swindon Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.44

Gillingham

1.54

Swindon Town

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 30 away

1.19

creates per match

1.40

1.48

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Swindon Town

1.40

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Swindon Town

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

64%

Gillingham or Swindon Town

76%

Draw or Swindon Town

60%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

20%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

79%

Gillingham 2+ goals

45%

Gillingham 3+ goals

20%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

76%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

42%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

53%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Swindon Town defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.54

Swindon Town attack 1.40 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gillingham scores more

40%

level

24%

Swindon Town scores more

36%

Gillingham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Tucker

Gillingham · D

7.6

Match Events

12'

Scott Robertson

17'

V. Oliver↳ J. Akinde

25'

Jack Payne

37'

D. Conroy← D. Donohue

42'

53'

62'

63'

80'

84'

A. MacDonald← D. Samuel

85'

J. Lyden← A. Grant

88'

H. Parsons← T. Smith

90'

D. Drysdale← V. Oliver

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamSwindon

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots18

1Corners4

19Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots18

3On Target3

1Off Target9

2Blocked6

5Inside Box12

1Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

253Total Passes482

138Accurate Passes345

55%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3