Gillingham 3–1 Southend: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Southend

B. Hanlan 87'

S. O'Keefe 46'

A. Jones 43'

S. Cox 58'

10/5/2019

League One · Round 12Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Gillingham45%

×Draw25%

Southend30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchSouthend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Gillingham

1.54

Southend

1.21

Gillingham creates 27% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

1.19

creates per match

0.95

1.48

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Southend

0.95

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Southend

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Southend+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Southend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

70%

Gillingham or Southend

75%

Draw or Southend

55%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

23%

Southend wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

79%

Gillingham 2+ goals

45%

Gillingham 3+ goals

20%

Southend 1+ goals

70%

Southend 2+ goals

34%

Southend 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

60%

Southend (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Southend away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Southend defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.54

Southend attack 0.95 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gillingham scores more

45%

level

25%

Southend scores more

30%

Gillingham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. McLaughlin

Southend · M

7.9

Match Events

43'

A. Jones

46'

S. O'Keefe↳ O. Lee

55'

E. Acauah← I. Hutchinson

55'

J. Shaughnessy← J. Demetriou

57'

Barry Fuller

58'

S. Cox↳ S. McLaughlin

63'

65'

66'

66'

71'

71'

81'

87'

90+4'

90+2'

A. Jakubiak← B. Hanlan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamSouthend

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots11

7Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots11

9On Target2

7Off Target2

2Blocked7

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

432Total Passes334

305Accurate Passes201

71%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

6Offsides2