Gillingham 1–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

J. Clarke 79'

11/9/2024

League Two · Round 15Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Gillingham36%

×Draw29%

Port Vale36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

Gillingham

1.13

Port Vale

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 117 away

1.08

creates per match

1.17

1.08

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Gillingham

1.08

Port Vale

1.17

allows per match

Gillingham

1.08

Port Vale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

64%

Gillingham or Port Vale

71%

Draw or Port Vale

64%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Port Vale wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

68%

Gillingham 2+ goals

31%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Port Vale 1+ goals

68%

Port Vale 2+ goals

31%

Port Vale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

50%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.08 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Port Vale attack 1.17 + Gillingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gillingham scores more

36%

level

29%

Port Vale scores more

36%

Gillingham at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Masterson

Gillingham · D

7.9

Match Events

29'

E. Coleman← A. Little

40'

Jayden Stockley

46'

E. Chislett← R. Richards

69'

A. Hackford← J. Stockley

69'

J. Shorrock← R. Curtis

70'

J. Williams← E. Williams

70'

J. Clarke← M. Wyllie

72'

Ethan Coleman

74'

J. Andrews← J. Wakeling

75'

J. Nolan← T. Dieng

79'

J. Clarke↳ C. Masterson

85'

R. Paton← C. Grant

85'

L. Tolaj← J. Debrah

86'

Jack Nolan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamPort

Overview

51%Possession49%

4Total Shots5

3Corners1

11Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots5

1On Target0

2Off Target2

1Blocked3

2Inside Box5

2Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

416Total Passes427

288Accurate Passes288

69%Pass Accuracy67%

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5