Gillingham 1–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Plymouth

V. Oliver 28'

5/9/2021

League One · Round 46Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham35%

×Draw25%

Plymouth40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.44

Gillingham

1.34

Plymouth

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 114 away

1.19

creates per match

1.39

1.48

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

60%

Gillingham or Plymouth

75%

Draw or Plymouth

65%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

16%

Plymouth wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

74%

Gillingham 2+ goals

39%

Gillingham 3+ goals

15%

Plymouth 1+ goals

76%

Plymouth 2+ goals

42%

Plymouth 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

47%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gillingham scores more

35%

level

25%

Plymouth scores more

40%

Plymouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

T. O'Connor

Gillingham · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

B. Moore← K. Watts

28'

V. Oliver↳ O. Lee

54'

55'

56'

59'

68'

T. Johnson← A. MacDonald

68'

K. Lolos← N. Ennis

69'

L. Jephcott← B. Moore

70'

Kyle Dempsey

87'

L. McCormick← M. Cooper

87'

F. Craske← D. Mayor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamPlymouth

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots13

6Corners4

14Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots13

3On Target2

7Off Target3

2Blocked8

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

303Total Passes396

202Accurate Passes291

67%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0