Gillingham 0–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

C. Evans 90+3'

P. Madden 66'

10/24/2020

League One · Round 8Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham37%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.32

Gillingham

1.31

Fleetwood Town

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 135 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.48

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Fleetwood Town

1.16

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

63%

Gillingham or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

63%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

16%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

73%

Gillingham 2+ goals

38%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

73%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

38%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

50%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gillingham scores more

37%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

37%

Gillingham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Graham

Gillingham · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

Connor Ogilvie

24'

A. MacDonald← T. OConnor

41'

John Akinde

54'

C. Evans← H. Saunders

66'

P. Madden

67'

M. Duffy← S. Finley

70'

Dominic Samuel

75'

M. Willock← S. Robertson

83'

83'

85'

87'

87'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamFleetwood

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots10

5Corners3

14Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target2

5Off Target5

0Blocked3

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

272Total Passes372

166Accurate Passes245

61%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls16

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1