Fleetwood Town 2–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gillingham

Z. Medley 85'

R. Graydon 53'

B. Dack 14'

12/20/2025

League Two · Round 21Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fleetwood Town44%

×Draw26%

Gillingham30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.16

Fleetwood Town

1.46

Gillingham

1.16

Fleetwood Town creates 26% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

0.96

1.35

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.42

Gillingham

0.96

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.35

Gillingham

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

70%

Fleetwood Town or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

56%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

21%

Gillingham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

77%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

43%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

18%

Gillingham 1+ goals

69%

Gillingham 2+ goals

32%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

59%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.42 + Gillingham defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gillingham attack 0.96 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

44%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

30%

Fleetwood Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Ennis

Fleetwood Town · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

28'

45+1'

48'

52'

53'

58'

66'

H. Neal← M. Helm

73'

W. Davies← R. Graydon

79'

Z. Medley← L. McCann

79'

J. Smith← S. Palmer-Houlden

80'

J. Davies← M. Virtue-Thick

85'

Z. Medley↳ C. Evans

86'

E. Coleman← A. Little

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodGillingham

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots10

2.56Expected Goals (xG)0.79

10Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

6On Target1

4Off Target7

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

312Total Passes225

214Accurate Passes116

69%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham

Fleetwood Town beat Gillingham 2-1 in League Two on December 20, 2025.

Goals: B. Dack (14'), R. Graydon (53'), Z. Medley (85').

Fleetwood Town controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood.

Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham — League Two 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Gillingham