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Gillingham vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
15:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
12/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Priestfield Stadium
Big match
38%
Gillingham
model favours
38%26%37%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Gillingham38%
×Draw26%
Cheltenham37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.37
Cheltenham
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Cheltenham
1.05

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Cheltenham
1.36

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
63%
Gillingham or Cheltenham
74%
Draw or Cheltenham
62%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
17%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
75%
Gillingham 2+ goals
40%
Gillingham 3+ goals
16%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
74%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
39%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
51%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gillingham scores more
38%
level
26%
Cheltenham scores more
37%

Gillingham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Cheltenham
Balanced
48%Possession48%
64%Pass accuracy65%
11.4Shots10.8
1.30xGBiggest gap1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamCheltenham

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

0
Gillingham
4
Draws
2
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 83%
1–21–11–12–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face Cheltenham (League Two)

League Two returns with Gillingham hosting Cheltenham. Match starts December 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host Cheltenham at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.