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Cheltenham vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gillingham
Gillingham
K. Etete 78'
C. Wright 40'
B. Reeves 59'
V. Oliver 14'
4/15/2022League OneLeague One · Round 43Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham37%
×Draw27%
Gillingham36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.28
Gillingham
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 99 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.19
Gillingham
1.17

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.32
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
64%
Cheltenham or Gillingham
73%
Draw or Gillingham
63%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
16%
Gillingham wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
72%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
37%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
14%
Gillingham 1+ goals
71%
Gillingham 2+ goals
36%
Gillingham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
51%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more
37%
level
27%
Gillingham scores more
36%

Cheltenham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
A. ChapmanGillinghamGillingham · G
8.0

Match Events

14'
V. Oliver↳ R. McKenzie
40'
C. Wright
57'
Reece Hutchinson
59'
B. Reeves
62'
A. Ramsey← C. Thomas
74'
D. Phillips← O. Lee
78'
K. Etete↳ S. Long
81'
D. Tutonda← B. Reeves
83'
L. Freestone← R. Hutchinson
85'
Sean Long
88'
Vadaine Oliver

Possession

63%Cheltenham

Shots

18Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

57%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamGillingham
Overview
63%Possession37%
18Total Shots12
5Corners5
15Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots12
10On Target6
3Off Target3
5Blocked3
11Inside Box7
7Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
383Total Passes215
269Accurate Passes114
70%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
4Saves8
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

League One: Cheltenham 2–2 Gillingham

Cheltenham and Gillingham drew 2-2 in League One on April 15, 2022.

Goals: V. Oliver (14'), C. Wright (40'), B. Reeves (59'), K. Etete (78').

Cheltenham controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.