Gillingham 0–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

A. May 60'

S. Long 30'

11/23/2021

League One · Round 19Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gillingham41%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.25

Gillingham

1.43

Cheltenham

1.25

Gillingham creates 14% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 69 away

1.19

creates per match

1.01

1.48

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

67%

Gillingham or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

59%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

20%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

76%

Gillingham 2+ goals

42%

Gillingham 3+ goals

17%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

71%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

36%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

56%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

41%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

33%

Gillingham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

S. Long

Cheltenham · D

7.9

Match Events

30'

S. Long

53'

Max Ehmer

60'

A. May↳ K. Vassell

64'

C. Norton← D. Crowley

69'

Scott Flinders

73'

C. Wright← A. May

77'

G. Sithole← M. Carayol

81'

J. Gbode← O. Lee

86'

S. Gale← D. Phillips

86'

A. Williams← K. Vassell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamCheltenham

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots14

6Corners4

8Fouls5

Shots

13Total Shots14

3On Target5

6Off Target2

4Blocked7

5Inside Box7

8Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

412Total Passes396

315Accurate Passes303

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0