Gillingham 0–2 Charlton: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Charlton

J. Cullen 42'

J. Aribo 24'

4/27/2019

League One · Round 45Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Gillingham33%

×Draw27%

Charlton40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.31

Gillingham

1.18

Charlton

1.31

Charlton creates 11% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 140 away

1.13

creates per match

1.24

1.37

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Gillingham

1.13

Charlton

1.24

allows per match

Gillingham

1.37

Charlton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

60%

Gillingham or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

67%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

14%

Charlton wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

69%

Gillingham 2+ goals

33%

Gillingham 3+ goals

12%

Charlton 1+ goals

73%

Charlton 2+ goals

38%

Charlton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

46%

Charlton (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 87 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.23 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.13 + Charlton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Charlton attack 1.24 + Gillingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gillingham scores more

33%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

40%

Charlton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Luke O'Neill

24'

J. Aribo↳ B. Purrington

42'

J. Cullen

45'

Darren Pratley

46'

T. Eaves← T. Campbell

65'

Mark Byrne

65'

D. Parrett← R. Charles-Cook

71'

J. Rees← E. List

78'

J. Parker← J. Williams

81'

Josh Cullen

83'

Connor Ogilvie

86'

A. Morgan← G. Lapslie

Gillingham

Charlton

1

Phillips

6

Pearce

23

Sarr

16

A

Purringto

15

Pratley

21

▼

Williams

17

⚽

Aribo

24

⚽

Cullen

2

Dijksteel

32

▼

14

1

12

2

34

33

5

17

11

▼

Charles-C

15

▼

List

14

▼

Campbell

7

Hanlan

Manager: M. Patterson

46'▲T. Eaves←▼T. Campbell

65'▲D. Parrett←▼R. Charles-Cook

71'▲J. Rees←▼E. List

Gillingham substitutes

9Eaves8Parrett24Rees20Oldaker4Lacey30Hadler3Garmston

Manager: L. Bowyer

78'▲J. Parker←▼J. Williams

86'▲A. Morgan←▼G. Lapslie

Charlton substitutes

10Parker19Morgan42Doughty12Reeves8Forster-Caskey31Maynard-Brewer3Page