Gillingham 1–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

V. Oliver 86'

2/8/2022

League One · Round 32Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Gillingham44%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

Gillingham

1.48

Cambridge United

1.19

Gillingham creates 24% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 92 away

1.19

creates per match

0.89

1.48

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Cambridge United

0.89

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Cambridge United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

70%

Gillingham or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

56%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

21%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

77%

Gillingham 2+ goals

43%

Gillingham 3+ goals

19%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

70%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

33%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

59%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gillingham scores more

44%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

30%

Gillingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Oliver

Gillingham · F

7.6

Match Events

58'

David Tutonda

63'

T. Dickson-Peters← C. Kelman

63'

J. Lankester← L. ONeil

67'

Ben Thompson

72'

L. Tolaj← H. Knibbs

75'

R. Jackson← D. Tutonda

86'

V. Oliver↳ R. McKenzie

90+4'

D. Phillips← V. Oliver

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamCambridge

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots7

4Corners0

12Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target1

3Off Target3

5Blocked3

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

319Total Passes487

173Accurate Passes339

54%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides4