Gillingham 0–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blackpool

N. Delfouneso 49'

11/6/2018

League One · Round 11Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gillingham34%

×Draw27%

Blackpool39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.29

Gillingham

1.19

Blackpool

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 134 away

1.19

creates per match

1.11

1.48

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Blackpool

1.11

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Blackpool

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

61%

Gillingham or Blackpool

73%

Draw or Blackpool

66%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

14%

Blackpool wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

70%

Gillingham 2+ goals

33%

Gillingham 3+ goals

12%

Blackpool 1+ goals

72%

Blackpool 2+ goals

37%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

47%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gillingham scores more

34%

level

27%

Blackpool scores more

39%

Blackpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

N. Delfouneso↳ C. Taylor

60'

J. Thompson← C. Taylor

66'

Nathan Delfouneso

71'

Luke O'Neill

76'

E. List← L. ONeill

77'

D. Parrett← R. Charles-Cook

85'

H. Pritchard← M. Cullen

88'

J. Parker← C. Ogilvie

89'

Jay Spearing

Gillingham

Blackpool

37

20

12

27

16

8

19

A

▼

Taylor

6

Heneghan

25

Guy

7

⚽

Delfounes

9

▼

1

6

12

2

▼

O'Neill

34

▼

Ogilvie

33

Byrne

5

Ehmer

11

▼

20

9

7

Manager: S. Lovell

76'▲E. List←▼L. ONeill

77'▲D. Parrett←▼R. Charles-Cook

88'▲J. Parker←▼C. Ogilvie

Gillingham substitutes

15List8Parrett14Parker17Nasseri19Simpson23Mbo30Hadler

Manager: T. McPhillips

60'▲J. Thompson←▼C. Taylor

85'▲H. Pritchard←▼M. Cullen

Blackpool substitutes

15Thompson14Pritchard11Dodoo13Boney17McLaughlin18O'Sullivan24Feeney

League One: Gillingham 0–1 Blackpool

Blackpool beat Gillingham 1-0 in League One on November 6, 2018.

Goals: N. Delfouneso (49').

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham.

Gillingham vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Gillingham 0–1 Blackpool