Blackpool 4–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Gillingham

E. Embleton 61'

S. Kaikai 30'

J. Yates 19', 5'

J. Graham 14'

4/5/2021

League One · Round 40Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Blackpool45%

×Draw26%

Gillingham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Blackpool

1.46

Gillingham

1.13

Blackpool creates 29% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 99 away

1.53

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Blackpool

1.53

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Blackpool

1.09

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

71%

Blackpool or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

55%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

22%

Gillingham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

77%

Blackpool 2+ goals

43%

Blackpool 3+ goals

18%

Gillingham 1+ goals

68%

Gillingham 2+ goals

31%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

60%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackpool scores more

45%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

29%

Blackpool at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

L. Garbutt

Blackpool · D

8.3

Match Events

5'

14'

19'

30'

34'

39'

59'

60'

61'

E. Embleton↳ S. Kaikai

67'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel← E. Embleton

86'

E. Robson← J. Yates

86'

D. Mitchell← S. Kaikai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolGillingham

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots8

5Corners2

17Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target4

5Off Target2

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

472Total Passes357

324Accurate Passes209

69%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4