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Gillingham vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
Preview
15:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
1/16/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Priestfield Stadium
Big match
42%
Gillingham
model favours
42%26%32%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Gillingham42%
×Draw26%
Accrington ST32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.46
Accrington ST
1.23

Gillingham creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Accrington ST
0.79

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Accrington ST
1.55

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Accrington ST-0.23scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
68%
Gillingham or Accrington ST
74%
Draw or Accrington ST
58%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
20%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
77%
Gillingham 2+ goals
43%
Gillingham 3+ goals
18%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
71%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
35%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
57%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Accrington ST defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Accrington ST attack 0.79 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gillingham scores more
42%
level
26%
Accrington ST scores more
32%

Gillingham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Gillingham
Balanced
Accrington ST
Balanced
48%Possession47%
64%Pass accuracy62%
11.7Shots11.4
1.30xGBiggest gap0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GillinghamAccrington ST

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Gillingham
3
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 50%
2–01–11–11–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gillingham
WLWWL
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gillingham face Accrington ST (League Two)

League Two returns with Gillingham hosting Accrington ST. Match starts January 16, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gillingham host Accrington ST at Priestfield Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.