Gillingham 1–2 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Accrington ST

10/12/2024

League Two · Round 11Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gillingham43%

×Draw27%

Accrington ST29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.07

Gillingham

1.36

Accrington ST

1.07

Gillingham creates 27% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 69 away

1.08

creates per match

1.06

1.08

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Gillingham

1.08

Accrington ST

1.06

allows per match

Gillingham

1.08

Accrington ST

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

71%

Gillingham or Accrington ST

73%

Draw or Accrington ST

57%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

20%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

74%

Gillingham 2+ goals

39%

Gillingham 3+ goals

16%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

66%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

29%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

60%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.08 + Accrington ST defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Accrington ST attack 1.06 + Gillingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gillingham scores more

43%

level

27%

Accrington ST scores more

29%

Gillingham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff