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Gillingham vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
A. Nadesan 29'
8/12/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Gillingham43%
×Draw25%
Accrington ST32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.52
Accrington ST
1.27

Gillingham creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.38
Accrington ST
0.88

allows per match

Gillingham
1.66
Accrington ST
1.66

finishing

Gillingham-0.17scores less
Accrington ST-0.15scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
68%
Gillingham or Accrington ST
75%
Draw or Accrington ST
57%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
21%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
78%
Gillingham 2+ goals
45%
Gillingham 3+ goals
20%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
72%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
36%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
58%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 14 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.38 + Accrington ST defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Accrington ST attack 0.88 + Gillingham defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gillingham scores more
43%
level
25%
Accrington ST scores more
32%

Gillingham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. OgieGillinghamGillingham · D
7.9

Match Events

5'
Dom Jefferies
26'
Josh Andrews
29'
A. Nadesan↳ T. Nichols
58'
Shadrach Ogie
62'
Jay Rich-Baghuelou
65'
S. Whalley← S. McConville
65'
K. Adedoyin← J. Andrews
65'
R. Longelo-Mbule← J. Nolan
75'
G. Lapslie← T. Dieng
75'
M. Lowe← K. Mellor
83'
E. Coleman← D. Jefferies
83'
M. Bonne← A. Nadesan
83'
C. Alexander← J. Williams
90'
Max Ehmer

Possession

50%Gillingham

Shots

17Gillingham

Pass accuracy

50%Gillingham

Statistics

GillinghamAccrington
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots9
9Corners1
14Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots9
4On Target1
9Off Target5
4Blocked3
14Inside Box3
3Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
329Total Passes341
203Accurate Passes213
62%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

League Two: Gillingham 1–0 Accrington ST

Gillingham beat Accrington ST 1-0 in League Two on August 12, 2023.

Goals: A. Nadesan (29').

Gillingham controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.