Gilla 6–0 Valtti II: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Gilla

6 – 0

Valtti II

3/30/2025

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gilla45%

×Draw20%

Valtti II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillaExpected goals in this matchValtti II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

2.00

Gilla

2.29

Valtti II

2.00

Gilla creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

1.00

3.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Gilla

2.25

Valtti II

1.00

allows per match

Gilla

3.00

Valtti II

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gilla+0.00on par

Valtti II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gilla ↓

Valtti II →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Gilla or draw

65%

Gilla or Valtti II

80%

Draw or Valtti II

55%

Winning margin

Gilla wins by 2+

27%

Valtti II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gilla 1+ goals

90%

Gilla 2+ goals

66%

Gilla 3+ goals

40%

Valtti II 1+ goals

86%

Valtti II 2+ goals

59%

Valtti II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Gilla (draw refunded)

57%

Valtti II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gilla at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Valtti II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gilla attack 2.25 + Valtti II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Valtti II attack 1.00 + Gilla defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gilla scores more

45%

level

20%

Valtti II scores more

35%

Gilla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff