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Gilla vs Valtti — Suomen Cup 2018

Gilla
Gilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valtti
Valtti
4/20/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gilla16%
×Draw15%
Valtti69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gilla
1.63
Valtti
3.35

Valtti creates 106% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gilla
2.25
Valtti
3.71

allows per match

Gilla
3.00
Valtti
1.00

finishing

Gilla+0.00on par
Valtti+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gilla ↓

Valtti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Gilla or draw
31%
Gilla or Valtti
85%
Draw or Valtti
84%

Winning margin

Gilla wins by 2+
7%
Valtti wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Gilla 1+ goals
80%
Gilla 2+ goals
48%
Gilla 3+ goals
22%
Valtti 1+ goals
96%
Valtti 2+ goals
84%
Valtti 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Gilla (draw refunded)
19%
Valtti (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gilla at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Valtti away — creates 3.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gilla attack 2.25 + Valtti defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Valtti attack 3.71 + Gilla defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gilla scores more
16%
level
15%
Valtti scores more
69%

Valtti at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Valtti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Gilla 1–1 Valtti

Gilla and Valtti drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.