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Gilla vs PPJ — Suomen Cup 2018

Gilla
Gilla
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 0
PPJ
PPJadvanced
Unknown 36' (OG)
E. Markkanen 11'
R. Ouazine 90', 71'
V. Kauppila 84', 59'
A. Hagman 50'
4/13/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gilla19%
×Draw16%
PPJ65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gilla
1.71
PPJ
3.13

PPJ creates 83% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gilla
2.25
PPJ
3.27

allows per match

Gilla
3.00
PPJ
1.18

finishing

Gilla+0.00on par
PPJ+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gilla ↓

PPJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Gilla or draw
35%
Gilla or PPJ
84%
Draw or PPJ
81%

Winning margin

Gilla wins by 2+
9%
PPJ wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Gilla 1+ goals
82%
Gilla 2+ goals
51%
Gilla 3+ goals
24%
PPJ 1+ goals
95%
PPJ 2+ goals
81%
PPJ 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Gilla (draw refunded)
23%
PPJ (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gilla at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

PPJ away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gilla attack 2.25 + PPJ defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.71

PPJ attack 3.27 + Gilla defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gilla scores more
19%
level
16%
PPJ scores more
65%

PPJ at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "PPJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
E. Markkanen
36'
Own goal
50'
A. Hagman
59'
V. Kauppila
71'
R. Ouazine
84'
V. Kauppila
90'
R. Ouazine

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gilla 2 – 5 PPJ

PPJ beat Gilla 5-2 in Suomen Cup on April 13, 2026.

Goals: E. Markkanen (11'), ? (36' o.g.), A. Hagman (50'), V. Kauppila (59', 84'), R. Ouazine (71', 90').