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Gilla vs Klubi-04 — Suomen Cup 2018

Gilla
Gilla
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Klubi-04
Klubi-04
5/7/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gilla8%
×Draw10%
Klubi-0483%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gilla
1.32
Klubi-04
4.20

Klubi-04 creates 218% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gilla
2.25
Klubi-04
5.40

allows per match

Gilla
3.00
Klubi-04
0.40

finishing

Gilla+0.00on par
Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gilla ↓

Klubi-04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Gilla or draw
17%
Gilla or Klubi-04
90%
Draw or Klubi-04
92%

Winning margin

Gilla wins by 2+
3%
Klubi-04 wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Gilla 1+ goals
73%
Gilla 2+ goals
38%
Gilla 3+ goals
15%
Klubi-04 1+ goals
98%
Klubi-04 2+ goals
91%
Klubi-04 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Gilla (draw refunded)
8%
Klubi-04 (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gilla at home — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 5.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gilla attack 2.25 + Klubi-04 defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Klubi-04 attack 5.40 + Gilla defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 4.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Gilla scores more
8%
level
10%
Klubi-04 scores more
83%

Klubi-04 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gilla vs Klubi-04

Klubi-04 beat Gilla 6-0 in Suomen Cup on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.