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GIL Vicente vs Farense — Primeira Liga 2018

GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Farense
Farense
4/26/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 31Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

GIL Vicente45%
×Draw27%
Farense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIL Vicente
1.41
Farense
1.04

GIL Vicente creates 36% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

GIL Vicente
1.29
Farense
0.96

allows per match

GIL Vicente
1.11
Farense
1.53

finishing

GIL Vicente+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIL Vicente ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

GIL Vicente or draw
72%
GIL Vicente or Farense
73%
Draw or Farense
55%

Winning margin

GIL Vicente wins by 2+
22%
Farense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

GIL Vicente 1+ goals
76%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
41%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
17%
Farense 1+ goals
65%
Farense 2+ goals
28%
Farense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
62%
Farense (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIL Vicente at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Farense away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIL Vicente attack 1.29 + Farense defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Farense attack 0.96 + GIL Vicente defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GIL Vicente scores more
45%
level
27%
Farense scores more
28%

GIL Vicente at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GIL Vicente vs Farense

GIL Vicente beat Farense 1-0 in Primeira Liga on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Barcelos.