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GIL Vicente vs Arouca — Primeira Liga 2018

GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arouca
Arouca
4/26/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 31Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

GIL Vicente52%
×Draw25%
Arouca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIL Vicente
1.58
Arouca
0.95

GIL Vicente creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

GIL Vicente
1.29
Arouca
0.87

allows per match

GIL Vicente
1.03
Arouca
1.87

finishing

GIL Vicente-0.06on par
Arouca+0.13scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIL Vicente ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

GIL Vicente or draw
77%
GIL Vicente or Arouca
75%
Draw or Arouca
48%

Winning margin

GIL Vicente wins by 2+
27%
Arouca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

GIL Vicente 1+ goals
79%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
47%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
21%
Arouca 1+ goals
61%
Arouca 2+ goals
25%
Arouca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
70%
Arouca (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIL Vicente at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.03 · 13 matches

Arouca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.87 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIL Vicente attack 1.29 + Arouca defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Arouca attack 0.87 + GIL Vicente defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

GIL Vicente scores more
52%
level
25%
Arouca scores more
23%

GIL Vicente at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "GIL Vicente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: GIL Vicente 2–2 Arouca

GIL Vicente and Arouca drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Barcelos.