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GIL Vicente vs Arouca — Taça de Portugal 2018

GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Arouca
Arouca
11/8/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Cidade de Barcelos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GIL Vicente17%
×Draw21%
Arouca62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIL Vicente
0.96
Arouca
2.02

Arouca creates 110% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

GIL Vicente
0.83
Arouca
2.54

allows per match

GIL Vicente
1.50
Arouca
1.08

finishing

GIL Vicente+0.00on par
Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIL Vicente ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

GIL Vicente or draw
38%
GIL Vicente or Arouca
79%
Draw or Arouca
83%

Winning margin

GIL Vicente wins by 2+
6%
Arouca wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

GIL Vicente 1+ goals
62%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
25%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
7%
Arouca 1+ goals
87%
Arouca 2+ goals
60%
Arouca 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
22%
Arouca (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIL Vicente at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Arouca away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIL Vicente attack 0.83 + Arouca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Arouca attack 2.54 + GIL Vicente defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

GIL Vicente scores more
17%
level
21%
Arouca scores more
62%

Arouca at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GIL Vicente vs Arouca

Arouca beat GIL Vicente 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Barcelos.