Gil Vicente U23 2–1 Santa Clara U23: Result & Stats

Gil Vicente U23

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Santa Clara U23

5/26/2026

Taça Revelação U23 · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gil Vicente U2337%

×Draw20%

Santa Clara U2343%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gil Vicente U23Expected goals in this matchSanta Clara U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.25

Gil Vicente U23

2.08

Santa Clara U23

2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

2.67

1.83

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Gil Vicente U23

1.50

Santa Clara U23

2.67

allows per match

Gil Vicente U23

1.83

Santa Clara U23

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gil Vicente U23+0.00on par

Santa Clara U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gil Vicente U23 ↓

Santa Clara U23 →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Gil Vicente U23 or draw

57%

Gil Vicente U23 or Santa Clara U23

80%

Draw or Santa Clara U23

63%

Winning margin

Gil Vicente U23 wins by 2+

20%

Santa Clara U23 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Gil Vicente U23 1+ goals

87%

Gil Vicente U23 2+ goals

61%

Gil Vicente U23 3+ goals

34%

Santa Clara U23 1+ goals

89%

Santa Clara U23 2+ goals

65%

Santa Clara U23 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Gil Vicente U23 (draw refunded)

46%

Santa Clara U23 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gil Vicente U23 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Santa Clara U23 away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gil Vicente U23 attack 1.50 + Santa Clara U23 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Santa Clara U23 attack 2.67 + Gil Vicente U23 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gil Vicente U23 scores more

37%

level

20%

Santa Clara U23 scores more

43%

Santa Clara U23 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santa Clara U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff