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Gil Vicente U23 vs Benfica U23 — Taça Revelação U23 2020

Gil Vicente U23
Gil Vicente U23
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Benfica U23
Benfica U23
Miro 80'
T. Leite 47'
Jose Melro 90+1'
D. A. Santos Nascimento 36', 16'
5/10/2023Taça Revelação U23Taça Revelação U23 · Group Stage - 2Estádio de Vila Chã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gil Vicente U2333%
×Draw23%
Benfica U2344%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gil Vicente U23
1.50
Benfica U23
1.77

Benfica U23 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Gil Vicente U23
1.50
Benfica U23
1.70

allows per match

Gil Vicente U23
1.83
Benfica U23
1.50

finishing

Gil Vicente U23+0.00on par
Benfica U23+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gil Vicente U23 ↓

Benfica U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gil Vicente U23 or draw
56%
Gil Vicente U23 or Benfica U23
77%
Draw or Benfica U23
67%

Winning margin

Gil Vicente U23 wins by 2+
15%
Benfica U23 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gil Vicente U23 1+ goals
78%
Gil Vicente U23 2+ goals
44%
Gil Vicente U23 3+ goals
19%
Benfica U23 1+ goals
83%
Benfica U23 2+ goals
53%
Benfica U23 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gil Vicente U23 (draw refunded)
43%
Benfica U23 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gil Vicente U23 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Benfica U23 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gil Vicente U23 attack 1.50 + Benfica U23 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Benfica U23 attack 1.70 + Gil Vicente U23 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gil Vicente U23 scores more
33%
level
23%
Benfica U23 scores more
44%

Benfica U23 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Benfica U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
D. A. Santos Nascimento
36'
D. A. Santos Nascimento
47'
T. Leite
80'
Miro
90+1'
Jose Melro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gil Vicente U23 vs Benfica U23

Benfica U23 beat Gil Vicente U23 3-2 in Taça Revelação U23 on May 10, 2023.

Goals: D. A. Santos Nascimento (16', 36'), T. Leite (47'), Miro (80'), Jose Melro (90+1').

The match was played at Estádio de Vila Chã in Vila Chã.