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Gijón Industrial vs Vallobín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
CANC
00:00
Vallobín
Vallobín
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gijón Industrial52%
×Draw24%
Vallobín24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijón Industrial
1.69
Vallobín
1.06

Gijón Industrial creates 59% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

creates per match

Gijón Industrial
1.52
Vallobín
0.68

allows per match

Gijón Industrial
1.44
Vallobín
1.86

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par
Vallobín+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Vallobín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw
76%
Gijón Industrial or Vallobín
76%
Draw or Vallobín
48%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
28%
Vallobín wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
82%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
50%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
24%
Vallobín 1+ goals
65%
Vallobín 2+ goals
29%
Vallobín 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
69%
Vallobín (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Vallobín away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Vallobín defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vallobín attack 0.68 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more
52%
level
24%
Vallobín scores more
24%

Gijón Industrial at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gijón Industrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gijón Industrial face Vallobín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Gijón Industrial hosting Vallobín. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gijón Industrial host Vallobín at Estadio Santa Cruz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.