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Gijón Industrial vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Gijón Industrial31%
×Draw26%
Sporting Gijón II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijón Industrial
1.15
Sporting Gijón II
1.42

Sporting Gijón II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 86 away

creates per match

Gijón Industrial
1.52
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

Gijón Industrial
1.44
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw
57%
Gijón Industrial or Sporting Gijón II
74%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
69%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
12%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
68%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
32%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
11%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
76%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
41%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
41%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more
31%
level
26%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
43%

Sporting Gijón II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gijón Industrial vs Sporting Gijón II

Sporting Gijón II beat Gijón Industrial 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Gijón.