Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gijón Industrial vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Martín
San Martín
9/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gijón Industrial43%
×Draw25%
San Martín32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijón Industrial
1.54
San Martín
1.28

Gijón Industrial creates 20% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 78 away

creates per match

Gijón Industrial
1.52
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Gijón Industrial
1.44
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw
68%
Gijón Industrial or San Martín
75%
Draw or San Martín
57%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
22%
San Martín wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
79%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
45%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
20%
San Martín 1+ goals
72%
San Martín 2+ goals
37%
San Martín 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
58%
San Martín (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

San Martín attack 1.12 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more
43%
level
25%
San Martín scores more
32%

Gijón Industrial at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gijón Industrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gijón Industrial 3 – 2 San Martín

Gijón Industrial beat San Martín 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Gijón.