Gijón Industrial 1–1 Roces: Result & Stats

Gijón Industrial

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Roces

12/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gijón Industrial53%

×Draw24%

Roces23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijón IndustrialExpected goals in this matchRoces

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.06

Gijón Industrial

1.73

Roces

1.06

Gijón Industrial creates 63% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

1.52

creates per match

0.69

1.44

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Gijón Industrial

1.52

Roces

0.69

allows per match

Gijón Industrial

1.44

Roces

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Roces+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Roces →

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw

77%

Gijón Industrial or Roces

76%

Draw or Roces

47%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+

29%

Roces wins by 2+

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals

82%

Gijón Industrial 2+ goals

52%

Gijón Industrial 3+ goals

25%

Roces 1+ goals

65%

Roces 2+ goals

29%

Roces 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)

70%

Roces (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Roces away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Roces defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Roces attack 0.69 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more

53%

level

24%

Roces scores more

23%

Gijón Industrial at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gijón Industrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff