Gijón Industrial 1–3 Llanes: Result & Stats

Gijón Industrial

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Llanes

3/30/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Gijón Industrial40%

×Draw26%

Llanes34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijón IndustrialExpected goals in this matchLlanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.31

Gijón Industrial

1.44

Llanes

1.31

Gijón Industrial creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 94 away

1.52

creates per match

1.19

1.44

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Gijón Industrial

1.52

Llanes

1.19

allows per match

Gijón Industrial

1.44

Llanes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Llanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Llanes →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw

66%

Gijón Industrial or Llanes

74%

Draw or Llanes

60%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+

19%

Llanes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals

76%

Gijón Industrial 2+ goals

42%

Gijón Industrial 3+ goals

18%

Llanes 1+ goals

73%

Llanes 2+ goals

38%

Llanes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)

54%

Llanes (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Llanes away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.36 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Llanes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Llanes attack 1.19 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more

40%

level

26%

Llanes scores more

34%

Gijón Industrial at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gijón Industrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Gijón Industrial 1–3 Llanes

Llanes beat Gijón Industrial 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Gijón.

Gijón Industrial vs Llanes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Gijón Industrial 1–3 Llanes