Gijón Industrial 2–0 Lealtad: Result & Stats

Gijón Industrial

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lealtad

9/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Gijón Industrial31%

×Draw26%

Lealtad43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijón IndustrialExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.42

Gijón Industrial

1.16

Lealtad

1.42

Lealtad creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 82 away

1.52

creates per match

1.41

1.44

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Gijón Industrial

1.52

Lealtad

1.41

allows per match

Gijón Industrial

1.44

Lealtad

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Lealtad →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw

57%

Gijón Industrial or Lealtad

74%

Draw or Lealtad

69%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+

12%

Lealtad wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals

69%

Gijón Industrial 2+ goals

32%

Gijón Industrial 3+ goals

11%

Lealtad 1+ goals

76%

Lealtad 2+ goals

41%

Lealtad 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)

42%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Lealtad away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Lealtad defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lealtad attack 1.41 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more

31%

level

26%

Lealtad scores more

43%

Lealtad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff