Gijón Industrial 0–1 Covadonga: Result & Stats

Gijón Industrial

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Covadonga

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Gijón Industrial29%

×Draw25%

Covadonga46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijón IndustrialExpected goals in this matchCovadonga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.62

Gijón Industrial

1.24

Covadonga

1.62

Covadonga creates 31% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 83 away

1.52

creates per match

1.80

1.44

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Gijón Industrial

1.52

Covadonga

1.80

allows per match

Gijón Industrial

1.44

Covadonga

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Covadonga →

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw

54%

Gijón Industrial or Covadonga

75%

Draw or Covadonga

71%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+

12%

Covadonga wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals

71%

Gijón Industrial 2+ goals

35%

Gijón Industrial 3+ goals

13%

Covadonga 1+ goals

80%

Covadonga 2+ goals

48%

Covadonga 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)

39%

Covadonga (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.24

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more

29%

level

25%

Covadonga scores more

46%

Covadonga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Gijón Industrial 0–1 Covadonga

Covadonga beat Gijón Industrial 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Gijón.

Gijón Industrial vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Gijón Industrial 0–1 Covadonga