Gijón Industrial 1–1 Colunga: Result & Stats

Gijón Industrial

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colunga

José Naya 69'

Daniel Corgo 43'

4/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Gijón Industrial41%

×Draw26%

Colunga33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijón IndustrialExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.24

Gijón Industrial

1.43

Colunga

1.24

Gijón Industrial creates 15% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 113 away

1.52

creates per match

1.04

1.44

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Gijón Industrial

1.52

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Gijón Industrial

1.44

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Colunga →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw

67%

Gijón Industrial or Colunga

74%

Draw or Colunga

59%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+

20%

Colunga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals

76%

Gijón Industrial 2+ goals

42%

Gijón Industrial 3+ goals

17%

Colunga 1+ goals

71%

Colunga 2+ goals

35%

Colunga 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)

56%

Colunga (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Colunga attack 1.04 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more

41%

level

26%

Colunga scores more

33%

Gijón Industrial at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gijón Industrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Michi Fernández← B. Fofana

43'

Daniel Corgo

60'

Riki Navarro← Mateo

60'

M. Gueye← Daniel Corgo

66'

Juan Cano← Fabrice Ofon

69'

José Naya

71'

José Antonio← Miguel Estébanez

71'

Josín← Adrián Menéndez

77'

Raúl Carballo← Adrián Rodríguez

Gijón

Colunga

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Floro Junquera

21'▲Michi Fernández←▼B. Fofana

60'▲Riki Navarro←▼Mateo

66'▲Juan Cano←▼Fabrice Ofon

Gijón Industrial substitutes

FernándezNavarroCano

Manager: Julio Arniella

60'▲M. Gueye←▼Daniel Corgo

71'▲José Antonio←▼Miguel Estébanez

71'▲Josín←▼Adrián Menéndez

77'▲Raúl Carballo←▼Adrián Rodríguez

Colunga substitutes

GueyeAntonioJosínCarballo