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Gijón Industrial vs Barcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barcia
Barcia
9/24/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gijón Industrial56%
×Draw23%
Barcia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijón Industrial
1.82
Barcia
1.04

Gijón Industrial creates 75% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gijón Industrial
1.52
Barcia
0.65

allows per match

Gijón Industrial
1.44
Barcia
2.12

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par
Barcia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Barcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw
79%
Gijón Industrial or Barcia
77%
Draw or Barcia
44%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
32%
Barcia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
84%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
54%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
27%
Barcia 1+ goals
65%
Barcia 2+ goals
28%
Barcia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
72%
Barcia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Barcia away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Barcia defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.82

Barcia attack 0.65 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more
56%
level
23%
Barcia scores more
21%

Gijón Industrial at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gijón Industrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Gijón Industrial 1–0 Barcia

Gijón Industrial beat Barcia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Gijón.