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Gijón Industrial vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Gijón Industrial49%
×Draw25%
Avilés Stadium27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gijón Industrial
1.64
Avilés Stadium
1.15

Gijón Industrial creates 43% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

creates per match

Gijón Industrial
1.52
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Gijón Industrial
1.44
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijón Industrial ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gijón Industrial or draw
73%
Gijón Industrial or Avilés Stadium
75%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
51%

Winning margin

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
26%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
81%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
49%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
23%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
68%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
32%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
65%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijón Industrial at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijón Industrial attack 1.52 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.64

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gijón Industrial scores more
49%
level
25%
Avilés Stadium scores more
27%

Gijón Industrial at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gijón Industrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gijón Industrial 1 – 2 Avilés Stadium

Avilés Stadium beat Gijón Industrial 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Cruz in Gijón.