Gijang United 4–2 Seosan Pioneer: Result & Stats

Gijang United

FT

4 – 2

Seosan Pioneer

4/4/2026

K4 League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gijang United50%

×Draw22%

Seosan Pioneer28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijang UnitedExpected goals in this matchSeosan Pioneer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.44

Gijang United

1.98

Seosan Pioneer

1.44

Gijang United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.30

1.57

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Gijang United

1.57

Seosan Pioneer

1.30

allows per match

Gijang United

1.57

Seosan Pioneer

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijang United+0.00on par

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijang United ↓

Seosan Pioneer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gijang United or draw

72%

Gijang United or Seosan Pioneer

78%

Draw or Seosan Pioneer

50%

Winning margin

Gijang United wins by 2+

29%

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gijang United 1+ goals

86%

Gijang United 2+ goals

59%

Gijang United 3+ goals

31%

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals

76%

Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals

42%

Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gijang United (draw refunded)

64%

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijang United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Seosan Pioneer away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijang United attack 1.57 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.98

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.30 + Gijang United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gijang United scores more

50%

level

22%

Seosan Pioneer scores more

28%

Gijang United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gijang United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff