Gijang United vs Geoje Citizen

Gijang United

Preview

05:00

Geoje Citizen

11/1/2026

K4 League · Round 25

43%

Geoje Citizen

model favours

32%24%43%

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gijang United32%

×Draw24%

Geoje Citizen43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gijang UnitedExpected goals in this matchGeoje Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.60

Gijang United

1.35

Geoje Citizen

1.60

Geoje Citizen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.57

creates per match

1.63

1.57

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Gijang United

1.57

Geoje Citizen

1.63

allows per match

Gijang United

1.57

Geoje Citizen

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gijang United+0.00on par

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gijang United ↓

Geoje Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gijang United or draw

57%

Gijang United or Geoje Citizen

76%

Draw or Geoje Citizen

68%

Winning margin

Gijang United wins by 2+

14%

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Gijang United 1+ goals

74%

Gijang United 2+ goals

39%

Gijang United 3+ goals

15%

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals

80%

Geoje Citizen 2+ goals

47%

Geoje Citizen 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Gijang United (draw refunded)

43%

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gijang United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gijang United attack 1.57 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Gijang United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gijang United scores more

32%

level

24%

Geoje Citizen scores more

43%

Geoje Citizen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

United

LLDWL

Citizen

LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff