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Geoje Citizen vs Gijang United — K4 League 2026

Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
FT
4 – 2
Gijang United
Gijang United
5/24/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geoje Citizen55%
×Draw21%
Gijang United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geoje Citizen
2.15
Gijang United
1.38

Geoje Citizen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Geoje Citizen
2.29
Gijang United
0.89

allows per match

Geoje Citizen
1.86
Gijang United
2.00

finishing

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par
Gijang United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geoje Citizen ↓

Gijang United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Geoje Citizen or draw
76%
Geoje Citizen or Gijang United
79%
Draw or Gijang United
45%

Winning margin

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
33%
Gijang United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
88%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
63%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
36%
Gijang United 1+ goals
75%
Gijang United 2+ goals
40%
Gijang United 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
69%
Gijang United (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geoje Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Gijang United away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geoje Citizen attack 2.29 + Gijang United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Gijang United attack 0.89 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Geoje Citizen scores more
55%
level
21%
Gijang United scores more
24%

Geoje Citizen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geoje Citizen vs Gijang United

Geoje Citizen beat Gijang United 4-2 in K4 League on May 24, 2026.