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Gigant Saedinenie vs Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
CANC
00:00
Svilengrad
Svilengrad
5/9/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 30Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie67%
×Draw20%
Svilengrad12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
1.98
Svilengrad
0.71

Gigant Saedinenie creates 179% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 26 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Svilengrad
0.69

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Svilengrad
2.12

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
88%
Gigant Saedinenie or Svilengrad
80%
Draw or Svilengrad
33%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
42%
Svilengrad wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
86%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
59%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
31%
Svilengrad 1+ goals
51%
Svilengrad 2+ goals
16%
Svilengrad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
84%
Svilengrad (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.98

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
67%
level
20%
Svilengrad scores more
12%

Gigant Saedinenie at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gigant Saedinenie face Svilengrad (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast returns with Gigant Saedinenie hosting Svilengrad. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gigant Saedinenie host Svilengrad at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.