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Gigant Saedinenie vs Sadovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
1 – 0
Sadovo
Sadovo
3/23/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 22Gradski stadion (Saedinenie)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie86%
×Draw11%
Sadovo4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
2.79
Sadovo
0.43

Gigant Saedinenie creates 549% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Sadovo
0.12

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Sadovo
3.76

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Sadovo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Sadovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
96%
Gigant Saedinenie or Sadovo
89%
Draw or Sadovo
14%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
66%
Sadovo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
94%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
76%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
52%
Sadovo 1+ goals
35%
Sadovo 2+ goals
7%
Sadovo 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
96%
Sadovo (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Sadovo away — creates 0.12, concedes 3.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Sadovo defence 3.76 → ÷2 → 2.79

Sadovo attack 0.12 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
86%
level
11%
Sadovo scores more
4%

Gigant Saedinenie at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gigant Saedinenie vs Sadovo

Gigant Saedinenie beat Sadovo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Saedinenie).