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Gigant Saedinenie vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
10/12/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie62%
×Draw21%
Botev Plovdiv III17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
2.00
Botev Plovdiv III
0.95

Gigant Saedinenie creates 111% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
83%
Gigant Saedinenie or Botev Plovdiv III
79%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
38%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
37%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
86%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
59%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
32%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
61%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
25%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
78%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.00

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
62%
level
21%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
17%

Gigant Saedinenie at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 2–2 Botev Plovdiv III

Gigant Saedinenie and Botev Plovdiv III drew 2-2 in Third League - Southeast on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Saedinenie.