Gigant Saedinenie 2–2 Botev Plovdiv II

Gigant Saedinenie

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Botev Plovdiv II

4/27/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 32Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie47%

×Draw25%

Botev Plovdiv II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gigant SaedinenieExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.10

Gigant Saedinenie

1.54

Botev Plovdiv II

1.10

Gigant Saedinenie creates 40% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

1.47

0.74

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie

1.83

Botev Plovdiv II

1.47

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie

0.74

Botev Plovdiv II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw

73%

Gigant Saedinenie or Botev Plovdiv II

75%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

53%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

24%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

79%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

45%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

20%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

67%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

30%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

64%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

47%

level

25%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

27%

Gigant Saedinenie at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff