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GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Osters IF
Osters IF
4/24/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 4NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

GIF Sundsvall38%
×Draw25%
Osters IF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.42
Osters IF
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 112 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.47
Osters IF
1.35

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.45
Osters IF
1.36

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
63%
GIF Sundsvall or Osters IF
75%
Draw or Osters IF
62%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
18%
Osters IF wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
76%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
41%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
17%
Osters IF 1+ goals
75%
Osters IF 2+ goals
41%
Osters IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
51%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.45 · 83 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.47 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Osters IF attack 1.35 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
38%
level
25%
Osters IF scores more
37%

GIF Sundsvall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: GIF Sundsvall 2–3 Osters IF

Osters IF beat GIF Sundsvall 3-2 in Superettan on April 24, 2023.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.