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GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
2/28/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

GIF Sundsvall18%
×Draw20%
IF Elfsborg62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.07
IF Elfsborg
2.18

IF Elfsborg creates 104% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.43
IF Elfsborg
2.36

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
2.00
IF Elfsborg
0.71

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
38%
GIF Sundsvall or IF Elfsborg
80%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
82%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
6%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
66%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
29%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
9%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
89%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
64%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
22%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.43 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + GIF Sundsvall defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
18%
level
20%
IF Elfsborg scores more
62%

IF Elfsborg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GIF Sundsvall vs IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.