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GIF Sundsvall vs IF Brommapojkarna — Svenska Cupen 2019

GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
2/24/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Nordichallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

GIF Sundsvall19%
×Draw20%
IF Brommapojkarna62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GIF Sundsvall
1.15
IF Brommapojkarna
2.25

IF Brommapojkarna creates 96% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall
1.43
IF Brommapojkarna
2.50

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall
2.00
IF Brommapojkarna
0.86

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw
38%
GIF Sundsvall or IF Brommapojkarna
80%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
81%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
7%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
68%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
32%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
11%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
89%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
65%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
23%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.43 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

IF Brommapojkarna attack 2.50 + GIF Sundsvall defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more
19%
level
20%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
62%

IF Brommapojkarna at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: GIF Sundsvall 2–2 IF Brommapojkarna

GIF Sundsvall and IF Brommapojkarna drew 2-2 in Svenska Cupen on February 24, 2020.

The match was played at Nordichallen in Sundsvall.