GIF Sundsvall 1–5 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

GIF Sundsvall

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Hammarby FF

S. Ylätupa 15'

N. Besara 77', 10'

W. Swedberg 35', 29'

E. Kurtulus 23'

4/9/2022

Allsvenskan · Round 2NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

GIF Sundsvall32%

×Draw24%

Hammarby FF43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GIF SundsvallExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.61

GIF Sundsvall

1.36

Hammarby FF

1.61

Hammarby FF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 126 away

1.40

creates per match

1.45

1.78

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall

1.40

Hammarby FF

1.45

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall

1.78

Hammarby FF

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw

57%

GIF Sundsvall or Hammarby FF

76%

Draw or Hammarby FF

68%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

14%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

74%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

39%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

16%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

80%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

48%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

43%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.40 + Hammarby FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hammarby FF attack 1.45 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more

32%

level

24%

Hammarby FF scores more

43%

Hammarby FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

N. Besara

Hammarby FF · M

9.6

Match Events

10'

N. Besara↳ D. Bojanić

15'

S. Ylätupa↳ P. Engblom

17'

J. Andersen← D. Bojanić

23'

E. Kurtulus↳ N. Besara

29'

W. Swedberg↳ S. Sandberg

35'

W. Swedberg

46'

J. Corona← F. Lasso

46'

R. Lundström← E. Andersson

46'

J. Bengtsson← D. Olsson

57'

Robert Lundstrom

64'

L. Nåvik← D. Stensson

69'

M. Lahdo← W. Swedberg

69'

B. Paulsen← R. Magyar

76'

P. Pichkah← P. Silfwer

77'

N. Besara↳ A. Selmani

78'

J. Nilsson← S. Sandberg

79'

J. Erabi← G. Ludwigson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GIFHammarby

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots16

3Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots16

3On Target8

3Off Target3

2Blocked5

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

490Total Passes581

394Accurate Passes494

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2